Recent PhD graduate Adam Schreiner-McGraw, Enrique Vivoni, and others at the Jornada recently published a high-profile paper indicating that shrub encroachment has an outsize effect on dryland water budgets. The paper is published in the journal Scientific Reports (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65094-x). See the figure and citation info below.
Schreiner-McGraw, A.P., Vivoni, E.R., Ajami, H., Sala, O.E., Throop, H.L., and Peters, D.P.C. 2020. Woody Plant Encroachment is Expected to Have a Larger Impact than Climate Change on Dryland Water Budgets. Scientific Reports. 10: 8112.